UST – Andrew Thrasher

Weekly Technical Market Outlook 2/3/2014

Posted on February 3, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

While the bulls crushed it for what feels like every trading session in 2013, they weren’t able to hold strong to start off 2014. For the S&P 500, January finished down 3.56%, the Dow finished the month 5.6% lower, Nasdaq was down 1.74%, and small caps dropped 2.77%. Last week I wrote a post about the important level in equities to be watching right now as it pertains to historical returns. The Dow closed out trading on Friday just barely under the support level I highlighted. We’ll see if things continue to weaken this year or if buyers are able to step up and continue to defend support.

Equity Trend

Last week we broke through the 12-month trend line but traders then began keeping the price of the S&P 500 ($SPX) in a fairly tight consolidation above the 100-day moving average (blue line). Price for equities sits just at the previous December low as a break of the 100-MA would trigger a lower low and be a potential trend change. However, as I’ll discuss later, I think sentiment towards stocks has shifted too far too fast in order to see continued strength in selling. But we’ll see.

Equity and Treasury Relationship

The green line in the chart below shows the relative performance between the S&P 500 ($SPX) and 10-year Treasury bonds ($UST). As the line rises, we know that stocks are outpacing bonds and visa versa when the line heads lower. Late last year the ratio between these two asset classes finally broke above its 2007 high, which while it may seem interesting, isn’t what’s important about this chart.

What’s important is when this relationship begins to diverge from the price of equities. This has happened twice in the last seven years – at the 2007 and 2011 highs. In 2007 we had stocks begin to under perform Treasury’s while the S&P continued to hit a new high. In ’11 we did not see a lower high in the ratio between $SPX and $UST but it did not confirm the move that was taking place in $SPX alone. As the chart shows, both instances lead to lower prices in the stock market, albeit at a different severity.

As the green line drops back below the 2007 high, what I’ll be watching closely on the weekly chart is if buyers come back into the equity market and test (or break) the previous high in price but of the stock-bond relationship does not provide confirmation then if history is any indication – we may be in trouble. However, we may very well see a confirmation of a tested or new high – we’ll let price lead the way.

Equity Breadth

Like price, we saw breadth begin to consolidate after the sharp drop. The Advance-Decline Line is still in an uptrend as it has yet to break below it’s December low. The Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200-Day Moving Averages, while weak, is still above its rising trend line. If we get continued selling this week then there’s a chance we see the Percentage of Stocks Above 200-MA test or break the trend line which will likely be a large chink in the armor of the (so far) bullish outlook in equity breadth.

Equity Momentum

In last week’s Technical Market Outlook I noted the importance of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above previous support as it maintains its bullish range. While price consolidated we did see the RSI indicator hold above 35. The MACD momentum indicator continued to weaken last week putting in a lower low. The Money Flow Indicator held up well as it continues to stay above its December low – a sign that selling volume may not have been all that strong last week.Sentiment

CNN has created an interesting tool to measure sentiment, they call it their Fear & Greed indicator. The measure takes into account stock price strength (# of 52 week highs), breadth (McClellan Summation Index), demand for junk bonds (spread between investment grade and junk), momentum (% above 125-day MA), option activity (put/call ratio), volatility ($VIX above or below 50-MA), and safe haven demand (stocks vs. bonds). Of these seven measurements, 5 of them are registering “extreme fear” according to the analysis by CNN; with the first two showing “fear”.

The chart below shows the composite of the seven indicators, and s you can see we are currently near historical lows in sentiment.

S&P 500 60-Minute

The short-term view of the S&P 500 ($SPX) shows some positive divergences in both the RSI and MACD indicators. As price sits in a tight range, both momentum indicators began to make higher lows which gives us a clue that the directional pull by momentum may lead to higher prices in the equity market. I’ll be watching resistance at 1800 if bulls take control with 1770 being the level of support to keep the long-term up trend intact.

Last Week’s Sector Performance

Once again utilities ($XLU) showed the strongest performance of the nine S&P sectors. While being the second-strongest sector the previous week, consumer staples ($XLP) took it on the chin last week being the weakest performer.

Year-to-Date Sector Performance

We didn’t see much change from last week’s Technical Market Outlook for the YTD sector performance. Like the weekly chart above, utilities ($XLU) continue to lead for 2014 with consumer discretionary (cyclicals) ($XLY) holding up the rear as the weakest S&P sector.

Major Events This Week

As with most first week’s of the month, the focus will be on Friday’s payroll data. Specifically traders will likely be interested in whether the labor participation rate continued to drop in January and its impact on the overall unemployment rate.

Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending, and the ISM Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: Factory Orders
Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Non-Farm Payroll Report

Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.

Where Are We In the Business Cycle?

Posted on December 27, 2013 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Today I want to look at the three major asset classes, bonds ($USB), equities ($SPX), and commodities ($GSG) and how they can help us better understand where we are in the business cycle. John Murphy in his book Trading Intermarket Analysis does a great job at highlighting the relationship between these three asset classes and how they function during the business cycle.

Murphy references the following chart of the business cycle and shows that depending on what stage of the cycle we are in, the assets perform differently. Based on this, and I’ll show the chart further down in the post, it appears we may be entering stage four. I’ll explain why later. Here’s how Murphy describes the cycle, ” The business cycle is shown as a sine wave. The first three stages are part of an economic contraction (weakening, bottoming, strengthening). Stage 3 shows the economy in a contraction phase, but strengthening after a bottom. As the sine wave crosses the center line, the economy moves from contraction to the three phases of economic expansion (strengthening, topping and weakening). ”

Before we look at the current market, lets take a look at previous market peaks (no I’m not calling for a market top, keep reading). As Murphy describes, during a normal cycle we will see bond prices top out first and begin a down trend, followed by stocks with commodities being the last to weaken. This is how things played in 2000. As the chart below shows, the top panel is the 30-year Treasury Bond ($USB) which broke its up trend in late 1998 with equities ($SPX) topping out in 2000, followed by commodities ($GSG) in the bottom in early 2001.

Next up we have the market peak in 2007. Price action played out slightly differently leading up the economic cycle peak. While bond prices put in their low in 2004 we began seeing lower highs and higher llows from 2005 through 2007. Equities followed by peaking in 2007 and commodities ultimately toppled over in 2008.

So how do things look now? Not too bad. All three asset classes are still in their up trends; however, bonds are well off their highs. The 30-year Treasury bond appears to have potentially topped out last year as it starts to threaten its trend line off the 2007 and 2011 lows. Commodities, while not a great performer during the current bull market, are still in an up trend. And of course equities continue to make higher highs and higher lows with plenty of space between price and its trend line.

This is why I think we may be getting close to stage four in the business cycle. It’s possible we see bonds break their up trend in 2014 and light the match for economic contraction and ultimately a peak in equity prices. But it’s important to remember that the time between the peak in bonds and the top in equities can be years. Look back at the first chart, Treasury’s hit their high nearly two years before equities topped out.

While each market period is unique and involves different forces and economic environments, I think it’s important to watch these three assets and how they are related to one another. Based on the above chart it seems we are still in expansion phase of the economy and the market. I’ll be watching how things progress as we kick off 2014 and how these three assets perform.

Source: Intermarket Analysis (stockcharts.com)

Don’t forget to vote daily for my blog for the TraderPlanet Star Award – Click here to vote!

The Relationship between Stocks and Bonds Approaches Resistance

Posted on July 29, 2013 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

The equity market has surpassed its 2007 peak already and the bullish cheerleaders are just jumping up and down for new record highs. However, there is one relationship that has yet to breakout – the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury ratio. There is a falling trend line from the 2000 high to the 2007 high that we are slowly approaching.

Below is a monthly chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX) vs. the 10-year Treasury Note ($UST), this is comparing the price action of stocks vs. bonds (not bond yields!) going back to 2000. The falling trend line has yet to be tested and while we can speculate its importance, until we get there we can’t know. If things continue to shape out as they have been for the last couple of months with equities kicking the tail off of bonds then we will find out sooner rather than later what the reaction will be to this resistance and its implications for the capital markets. Until then we patiently wait.