It’s not very often I’ll reference to monthly data, although it is important to check in every once in a while just to get a long-term scope of where things are. Something I noticed today was that we are 10 S&P points away from the 200-month moving average from crossing over the 50-month moving average. On a daily chart, this is often referred to as a ‘death cross’ since it has coincided with poor market performance.
I went over to Robert Shiller’s site to get historical data (since it runs back to 1871 on a monthly basis) in order to find past occurrences of this cross over. Below are the 5 past occurrences. This is essentially irrelevant since you can’t make a justifiable opinion based on 5 data points, but still kind of interesting…
Data Source: Robert Shiller
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