I always enjoy reading the insights of Ned Davis, they produce some great commentary and have some extremely bright analysts down in Florida. A recent NY Times piece from Saturday discussed Ned Davis’ opinion of the divergence in the markets and the economy and how they are predicting an intermediate consolidation but are not suggesting traders to fight the Fed and the momentum we have been experiencing YTD.
A short-term consolidation might be in order after a stock market rise as sharp as the recent one; in a benign forecast, a modest decline would prepare the way for a bigger run upward for several months, which Ned Davis Research sees as the likeliest outcome. Stock valuations are already elevated, the firm says, and while that may not be an immediate problem, it implies that some excesses will need to be wrung out of the market down the road.
ENORMOUS problems remain for the global economy. The European financial crisis has been contained but not solved; further flare-ups are quite possible and could derail the market. Longer term, Mr. Clissold said, reversing the credit expansion and reducing debt loads are likely to have negative effects on riskier assets.
Buy-and-hold investors who maintain diversified portfolios and rigorously reinvest dividends and interest can try to ride out these cycles, Mr. Clissold said, and “have what will probably be modest returns” in the years ahead. Market professionals who try to do better than that will need to be nimble indeed.
