I’m extremely honored to share that I’ve won the Charles H. Dow Award for my paper, The 5% Canary. This is the second time a paper I’ve written has been selected to receive the Dow Award by the CMT Assocation. The 5% Canary focuses on when equity indices decline from 52-week highs and the duration of time it takes to reach a 5% drawdown. When these declines happen quickly the market has shown a continued bearish bias while when the declines are more protracted in duration, the market has often shown strength soon after. Having read about a math problem proposed by Johann Bernoulli in 1696 that sought to discover what type of path an object would need to travel in to go between two points in the quickest amount of time. Inspired by the answer to Bernoulli’s problem, I applied the concept to the financial markets and led to my research that resulted in the conclusions I wrote about in this paper.
About the Charles H. Dow Award from the CMT Assocation:
In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions and recognized 26 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions to the Charles H. Dow Award. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series.
I am honored to receive this award for the second time, and I am happy to now be able to share my paper publicly.
To read the paper please visit this link: The 5% Canary (Andrew Thrasher)
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