Momentum indicators are widely used by most technicians. There’s a wide variety of applications of momentum. Some look at high-low ranges, closing values only, various lookback periods, smoothed values with the inclusion of moving averages. How they are used also varies. Some traders look for extremes in momentum as signs for potential mean-reversion. Others seek divergences, such as with momentum making a lower-high as price makes a high-high. However, one topic regarding momentum indicators that doesn’t get as much attention are ranges. The range that a momentum indicator – and for this post’s purposes we’ll be using the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) – can tell us a lot about what’s going on in the market’s price action.
Ranges can be viewed in various timeframes; my focus today is looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 and the 14-week RSI. The focus isn’t on the “overbought” or “oversold” levels of 70 and 30. Instead, we’re more interested in when RSI rises above 60 or falls below 40. Strong momentum often begets continued strength, so when we see momentum staying elevated (outside of extreme levels like getting north of 80 back in January 2018), that’s historically been bullish for price continuing to rise. The opposite has also been true, when RSI is weak, hitting levels under 40, then price is deemed to be in a bearish range and price activity often finds itself in a down trend.
Below is an example using the weekly chart of the S&P 500 since 2000. Let’s unpack what can be learned from this chart:
- First let’s look at the major bear markets that began in 2000 and 2007. Notice as those down trends developed, the weekly RSI was unable to produce a reading above 60. It wasn’t until the down trends had ended and price began to show strength that we got the first break above 60.
- This doesn’t just apply to major bear markets. When RSI goes from under 40 to above 60, historically price action has appreciated further. I’ve plotted green arrows when this has occurred. Each move above 60 after being under 40, the shift from a possible bearish range to a potential new bullish range has been a positive sign for the Index.
We can take this concept of ranges a step further and look at a more systematic approach to identifying when the S&P 500 is in a bullish or bearish range based on its 14-week RSI. The chart below goes back to 1980 and turns green when the RSI has spent 3 of the last 4 weeks above 60 and turns red when the opposite occurs, spending 3 of the last 4 weeks under 40. To assist in identifying the ranges we’re looking for when it’s been above or below the noted levels for at least a few weeks rather than just a single week that pierces the threshold and immediately moves away (as we saw in August 2004 and June 2010).
Looking at the far right of the chart, we can see this metric is one that bulls still have left unchecked with regards to the rebound in equities that began in October 2022. Currently the 14-week RSI still hasn’t been able to breach 60 which leaves us still in a bearish range.
By taking a systematic approach to identifying the ranges of momentum, we can run a simple back test to see how the market has performed when in these ranges. The chart below shows difference in performance of when the market is in bullish range (orange line) vs. when in a bearish range (blue line). This isn’t intended to be a trading signal but to provide insight into the condition of the market, based on whether the range momentum finds itself in. And of course… It’s important to note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell and past performance is not indicative of future returns.
By taking a step back and looking at longer-term charts such as the weekly chart examples used above, we can evaluate the ranges of momentum and work towards identifying what kind of market environment we may find ourselves in. The analyst can also play around with different thresholds. 60/40 are the ones I used today but are by no means the only options available and other technicians may find other thresholds for range identification useful.
Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.