Month: May 2016

Complacency in the Volatility Market

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I was away from the office for a few days but upon returning it’s nice to see that trades have pushed equities higher as some of the major indices approach their prior highs. However, this has caused volatility to get back under 14 and the level of compression within the $VIX has hit such a level that causes me to give pause.

Volatility of volatility (as measured by VVIX) has fallen back to a level that for the last year and half has marked several low points for the $VIX.

VVIX

This, along with several other indicators that I closely monitor, has me watching volatility right now. While we head into a long holiday weekend, Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader notes that since 2010 seasonality after Memorial Day hasn’t been extremely bullish for stocks, “Since 2010, the week of the holiday (next week) was positive only once (+1.2% in 2014). The other five years averaged a loss of 1.9%. None of the six years saw the S&P rally any more than 1.5% at its best point during the week.” Not that markets must follow their past playbook, but this negative slant of seasonality paired with what I’m seeing in volatility markets could play out in the bears favor in the coming weeks with a pop in the $VIX. We’ll see what happens.

Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.

Why It’s Tough To Get Excited About Equities Right Now

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Saturday marks the one year anniversary of the all-time high for the S&P 500 – and yet since then the market has been just a few percentage points away almost the whole time. How depressing is that? This range bound market has tested the patience and fortitude of many traders as they try to find an edge in a painfully boring tape. While we’ve seen some swings in both directions, stocks have largely been unable to show any strength after the weight of the evidence back in July turned bearish, which I wrote about back in late-July in a post titled The Greatest Risk of A Market Peak Since 2007.  

While there’s several pieces of data you could point to that show hints of brighter days ahead, when you look at just a basic chart of the major indices, it’s tough to get very excited. The S&P 500 as created a clear level of resistance at 2110. the Dow Jones Industrial Average has put in a false break out from its prior high as price has come back into its year-long range. The Russell 2000 is in a down trend of lower highs and lower lows – as is the international index MSCI EAFE.

equity

Eventually we’ll see a breakout. It could be to the upside or to the down, at this point this look more poised for the bears to retain control but as a price-focused trader I’m prepared for either conclusion. Patience has never been more of a virtue than the last twelve months in the equity markets.

Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.