August 2014 – Andrew Thrasher

Why Seasonality is Secondary

Posted on August 27, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Some great trades can come when different sets of data align themselves at the same time. I often look at and write about price, relative strength, Commitment of Traders (COT) report, and seasonality when viewing a sector or asset class. Seasonality can be a great resource for screening and finding the bullish and bearish periods of time based on historical. However, 2014 has been a great example of why we can’t rely solely on seasonality.

A few weeks ago I wrote about the breakout in price for the Internet sector ($FDN) which was happening during a bullish period seasonality. Since then we’ve seen $FDN continue to rise.

However, when we look at the overall U.S. equity market, seasonality hasn’t been as helpful. We came into this year with the 2nd and 3rd quarters being historically the worst quarters in the Presidential Cycle. Over the last three months the S&P 500 ($SPY) is up nearly 6%. Looking at one-year seasonality, May to October hasn’t been the stronger period of trading. But 2014 has seen new all-time highs even during this bearish timeframe.

If all we looked at was the historical seasonality of the market and used that solely as our bearish/bullish bias, then so far this year would leave us scratching our heads in confusion. However, price is what pays and must always be respected. Each week in my Technical Market Outlook post I start with the overall trend of the U.S. equity market and then take a look at breadth and momentum to understand the ‘health’ of the trend. This helps keep us honest and check our emotional bias at the door. While seasonality is currently saying we should have a bearish slant, price is saying something different which makes seasonality a secondary indicator.

Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.

Weekly Technical Market Outlook 8/18/2014

Posted on August 18, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

For last week, the S&P 500 ($SPX) finished up 1.22%, the Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed out the week at a new high with its 2.63% gain, and Small Caps ($IWM) closed on Friday just under their 20-week Moving Average and up 1%. This week’s Technical Market Outlook focuses on commodities and Treasury’s as well as the typical charts I show each week.

Trend

While we had that short-lived sell-off, the S&P 500 found support at its 100-day Moving Average and didn’t get the chance to even touch its trend line off the prior lows. The index is now back above both its short- and long-term Moving Averages as trend remains in favor of the bulls. I tweeted out on Friday the levels of resistance I’m watching, we were unable to close above either of them on Friday so I’ll continue to keep an eye here this week.

Breadth

As we started into August I noted that there had been a small negative divergence that was created in the Advance-Decline Line. While these types of occurrences typically lead to lower prices, it wasn’t big enough to cause us to worry of a protracted decline. The drop two weeks ago took the A-D Line back to its trend line where it found support.

Commodities

In my Where Are We In The Business Cycle? post back in December of last year, I showed the stock, bond, and commodity markets as I discussed some of the work done by John Murphy. While there are many different indices and ETFs that track the commodity market the GSCI Index is one of the broadest with a fairly long track record. However, I will say it gives a large weighting to crude oil. Earlier this year we saw $GSG run into its previous high which sent price falling and it has now broken through its bull market trend line.

This doesn’t mean that commodities are no longer in a bull market, but this is a fairly significant break and I’m watching to see how long it spends under the support line and if it now becomes resistance on any future advances. Commodities started out the year with a big move higher, but the last couple of months have not been kind. As we start to finish up the bearish period of seasonality, will commodities be able to rebound?

Commodities vs. Treasury’s

Sticking with the topic of commodities I want to show this next chart that has the ratio between The 10-Year Treasury and the CRB Commodity Index. You’ll notice this chart looks almost like a mirror image of the $GSG chart above. As Treasury’s rally the ratio between the 10-Year and commodities is close to breaking resistance. I’m curious if this will slow down the Treasury rally and if we see things cool off or if this ratio continues to march higher to the previous high in 2013.

Momentum

Like breadth, we saw momentum test support after the 4% drop in stocks. The Relative Strength Index fell back and tested previous support before bouncing and heading higher. After also diverging, the MACD has now seen a crossover of its fast and slow lines as stock prices attempt to rally back.

Bond Market

The theme so far for 2014 has been bond divergence. The chart below shows the ratio between High Yield and Treasury bonds and then the 10-year Treasury yield along with the S&P 500. We haven’t seen this large of a divergence between these two bond measurements since prior to the 2011 correction.

In my opinion there’s one of two things that is happening right now as it pertains to stocks and bonds:

1. The bond is trying to signal that something isn’t right. While stocks have been taking out new highs, High Yield bonds ($HYG) have been taken to the woodshed relative to their perceived saver brethren, Treasury’s. During the current bull market when High Yield bonds and Treasury yield have headed to the exits in the face of an advancing stock market, it was the fixed income market that got things right. Is it different this time?

Or 2. The correlation between bonds and stocks is changing. The 30-week correlation between the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the 10-Year Yield ($TNX) is at the lowest level since 2006. While typically we seen bonds and stocks trade inverse from one another, historically that hasn’t always been the case. During much of the 90’s we saw interest rates fall while stocks headed higher.

Of course there could be a third option, that the bond market has things wrong and will correct as stocks stabilize and keep the up trend in tact. Luckily the “why” isn’t all that important for those that rely on price action to dictate their bias. However, what’s happening in the fixed income market is interesting and if you believe it’s sending a warning signal for stocks, then the chart below is pretty tough to ignore.

60-Minute S&P 500

While there was a negative divergence in momentum going into the 4% sell-off, we also saw a positive divergence to help signal the ‘all clear.’ While price made lower lows on this intraday chart, the Relative Strength Index and MACD indicators began to rise, creating a bullish divergence. Price eventually confirmed and broke back over its 50 one hour Moving Average.

Last Week’s Sector Performance

Last week Health Care ($XLV) was the best performing sector followed by Tech ($XLK) and Consumer Staples ($XLP). While Energy ($XLE), Financials ($XLF) and Materials ($XLB) were the worst performing sectors for the week.

Year-to-Date Sector Performance

With the energy sector’s weakness over the last couple of weeks it has lost its place as one of the top two sectors for 2014. Health Care has moved into the top spot, followed by Utilities ($XLU) and Technology. Consumer Discretionary ($XLY), Industrials ($XLI) and Financials remain the worst performers for the year.

Is the Internet Sector About to Breakout?

Posted on August 13, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

When I look at different sectors and industries one of first places I turn to is the seasonal strength studies published in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Jeff Hirsch does a great job crunching the numbers looking for periods of time that certain sectors have seen strength. For the Internet sector, that period of time has historically started in August and lasted through December. So does price action confirm this bullish seasonal bias?

Below is the daily chart for the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF ($FDN). It’s had some big moves this year as it rose 11% from January until March and then dropped 26% before finding a bottom in May and most recently it has gained 16% from that May low – all while the S&P 500 has been up just 5%. This is a great example that just because the major indices may be up a couple of percent or even in the red it doesn’t mean other pieces of the market can’t have big moves.

Heading into the low in May for $FDN we can see that a positive divergence developed in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As price made lower lows we saw this momentum indicator begin to create higher lows, a sign that price may be getting ready to start heading higher. And that’s exactly what happened.

The Internet ETF is now in a symmetrical triangle pattern as it consolidates. This type of pattern often precedes a continuation of the prior trend, which in this case would be bullish. When we look at the movement in momentum, the RSI has held support just under its midway point, which is a positive sign that $FDN may be coiling to head higher.

Looking at the bottom panel of the chart we have the relative performance of $FDN vs. the S&P 500. Since the May low, the Internet sector has been outperforming the market, with the ratio between $FDN and $SPX in an established up trend. This has remained the case even as $FDN has consolidated over the last month.

Going forward, I’ll be watching to see if price can take out the upper trend line and then break past the prior high around $61. I also want to see if the Relative Strength Index can break above its prior high at 60 as a sign that momentum is confirming the potential bullish move in price.

Weekly Technical Market Outlook 8/11/2014

Posted on August 11, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Sorry I don’t have a full post this week like I normally do on Monday mornings. We have sold our house and are in the process of packing and I also had a BBQ competition this past weekend, so I wasn’t left with much time to write.

However, there are a few things I want to address as we start a new week, especially with futures higher at the time of this writing.

The importance of having a process is extremely helpful when selling begins to pick up in the major indices and the flood of mixed information begins to takeover your screen. Each week I look at the charts for Trend, Momentum, and Breadth. Not a lot changes from week-to-week but that’s the point. We set our levels of support and resistance and let price action dictate the bias.

With Friday’s close we remain above the 100-day Moving Average for the S&P 500 ($SPX) as well as the trend line I’ve highlighted off the June ’13 low.

While we look for divergences in Momentum, specifically the Relative Strength Index, the range that the indicator oscillates in can also be telling. During the currently rally we haven’t seen the RSI become ‘oversold’ once, yet it’s been finding support at 35 which is on the lower end of the bullish range for momentum. Last week we saw a slight dip under support but we finished the week back above, which is bullish.

Going into August we had a small divergence develop on the Common Stock-Only Advance-Decline Line, which I highlighted as a warning flag that price may be vulnerable. However, the A-D Line ended up finding support at its trend line and bounced on Friday, maintaining its up trend.

Two of the three worst performing sectors last week were from the defensive camp, Utilities ($XLU) and Health Care ($XLV). It appears investors did not run back to their safety blankets of lower beta sectors.

What I’m watching if things do rally is how the internals react. While we can’t forget the bearish seasonality that has been August, if we do rally back to the previous high I want to see if momentum and breadth can respond in-kind by getting back to their respective highs as well. But if the bulls are unable to take back control then 1900-ish will be an interesting place to look for support – we’ll see. We don’t want to get lost in the choppiness that seems to be clouding the markets as of late. Patience is key.

Are Cotton Prices Finding a Bottom?

Posted on August 7, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Commodities started off the year strong but as the crop reports started rolling in of the bumper crop that was expected for this year, prices began to fall a couple of months ago. We now have some futures markets sitting near multi-year lows, which means it might be time to start looking for interesting setups. With that, I think Cotton ($CT_F) prices may be ready to start putting in a bottom.

In this piece for See It Market I go through the latest price action of the Cotton ETF ($BAL), the bullish setup in COT data, as well as seasonal patterns.

Keep Reading: Are Cotton Prices Finding a Bottom (See It Market)