April 2014 – Andrew Thrasher

Weekly Technical Market Outlook 4/28/2014

Posted on April 28, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Welcome back, I hope everyone had a great weekend. I started my BBQ competition season this past weekend in Mt. Carmel, IL. There were some of the best teams in the country present and we had a lot of fun and finished up 19th out of 50 teams. We closed out last week with four sectors now under their 50-day Moving Averages lead by the selling on Friday. Crude ended the week lower after testing the resistance I mentioned in my Technical Market Outlook post two weeks ago and is now testing the rising trend line off the 2014 lows.Emerging markets ($EEM) have continued to under perform

Equity Trend

While this portion of the Technical Market Update has previously been fairly uneventful we are starting to see the development of a potential trend change. With Friday’s sell-off we may have begun to see the start of a lower low. The selling also happened at the March high which may signal that the pop to a fresh new all-time high in April was more out of exhaustion than resound bullishness. As always, we allow the price to lead the way and would still need to see a break of the April low, as well as the rising trend line that developed during 2013, before the bears takeover the trend. Equity Breadth

We still have a bullish setup in breadth with the Advance-Decline just coming off a fresh high. The percentage of stocks above their 200-day MA is also in a short-term rising up trend, which is currently close to be testing. Equity Momentum

As I have been saying for the last couple of weeks, momentum is one of the uglier charts for equities. While two weeks ago we saw the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hold support as stocks began to rise, a negative divergence is still taking place. The RSI has been making lower lows for the last four months. The same type of divergence is beginning to develop on the weekly chart as well. While the S&P 500 ($SPX) got back to its March high the MACD is barely positive. As we enter the historically bearish 6-months of the year it may be hard for the equity market to buck bearish momentum AND bearish seasonality. Coffee

As I noted last week in my brief Technical Market Outlook, I’m keeping a close eye on commodities. I came into this year one of the few bulls for the agriculture space but as all things – once they go up they must come back down. One of the best ag commodities this year has been coffee, up 87%. Since it’s one of the leaders I’m watching it for early signs of deterioration in its trend. Last week we saw coffee ($KC_F) prices break above their March high but to only give those gains partially back on Friday as it fell back under the previous high. This took place with the Relative Strength Index creating a negative divergence of lower highs. Although, price is still in it’s up trend off the previous April lows. If we see a break of $2.00 and the RSI breaks under 50 then we may begin to start seeking lower prices. If we look at the 5-year seasonal trend for coffee we can see that historically a peak has been put in at the start of May. The same type of pattern also occurs on the 10-year and 15-year look back periods as well. 60-Minute S&P 500

The one hour chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX) does a nice job showing the resistance created by the previous March high. The RSI and MACD both have rolled over and bears will be attempting to set their sights on the April low around 1815 as the next target. If we do not see continued selling then bulls need to get to 1900 to keep things in their control. Sentiment

I always find it interesting to see what the retail investor is doing. While most of the attention seems to get focused on the polls by AAII, Investor Intelligence, and NAAIM, they don’t actually show you what investors are doing. However, the data provided by Rydex funds does. Below is a chart of the total assets held in the bullish funds by Rydex divided by all Rydex assets combined. While the S&P was unable to make a new high, the percentage of assets held in bullish funds did. Retail investors still like stocks and are continuing to push money into the market. Last Week’s Sector Performance

Utilities ($XLU) continued to lead on a relative-performance basis as the strongest sector. With health care ($XLV) and energy ($XLE) also seeing strength. Technology ($XLK) and materials ($XLB) were the weakest performers during trading last week. Year-to-Date Sector Performance

With the increase in performance from energy ($XLE) and the continued dominance of utilities ($XLU) I’ve begun seeing people reference the sector rotation chart created by John Murphy over at Stockcharts.com. Murphy shows that historically the strongest sectors at market highs have been materials, energy, staples, and health care, with utilities not far behind. And as you can see, a large chunk of those sectors are what’s been leading in 2014. Utilities continue to lead YTD with energy pushing past health care for the number two spot. Major Events This Week

We have a fairly busy week this week as it pertains to economic reports. The main focus will likely be on Wednesday with the GDP data and the FOMC Announcement. Now that Yellen has told us she doesn’t think unemployment is as important as it was to her predecessor, traders are able to breathe a little easier (hopefully) on Friday.

Monday: Pending Home Sales
Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Announcement, and Farm Prices
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Auto Sales, and ISM Index
Friday: Non-Farm Payroll and Factory Orders

Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.

Successful Trading Starts With The Use Of A Shoehorn

Posted on April 24, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

As technology has developed we as a society have grown overly impatient. Often times stopping the microwave with a few seconds left, crossing the street before the light turns green, or pressing the elevator button 32 times as if it that helps. As I write this post I’m also checking charts and opening up my email but since those websites take more than 2 seconds to load I find myself drifting to other tasks while I wait. With this impatience we can begin to allow the small details to wander. But as with life and in trading, the details matter.

Every trade and nearly ever decision we make as traders, money managers, investors, or what have you impacts the P/L. You can nickel and dime yourself to death if you allow yourself. Many traders that I know and have a great respect for are deeply and passionately focused on the details. It’s starts from the custodian you trade through and the costs you pay for each executed order. Many retail investors pay an unearthly amount of money, that they likely don’t recognize, in order to have a brokerage account. They don’t take the time to find the best fit for them and realize how much commissions are eating into their potential profits.

As a technical-based trader it can be easy to torture a chart into telling me what I want to know. Trying to come up with some way to keep myself in a losing trade or taking on more risk than my process or system designates may seem minimal on a single trade but can have a larger impact on the psychology that impacts future positions.

This idea of focusing on the details in trading translates well into everyday life. It’s been said that the difference between a boy and a man is the understanding of the purpose and the use of a shoehorn. As children we often throw on our shoes forcing our heels to break past the shoe’s counter (the back piece of a shoe). This has little impact on the integrity of the shoe but after repeated forced entries the back of the shoe, the counter, begins to break down. Even though it seems as a small issue, a man recognizes the importance of a well-kept pair of shoes and begins to use the right tools. Details are essential.

To be a successful trader you must be focused and detail-driven. Understanding where the risk lie and what tools are needed to best impede their growth. Maintaining the growth of an account requires the use of the proper tools. Success starts with the use of a shoehorn.

Find Intraday Turning Points With The Advance-Decline Line

Posted on April 22, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Each week in my Technical Market Outlook post I show a daily chart of the NYSE Advance-Decline Line. I think this is a great tool for ‘monitoring’ the health of the equity market, but it can be used on multiple time frames. This is the topic of my TraderPlanet post for this week. I show how we can use the A-D Line and the Relative Strength Index to find potential turning points in the market on short-term 30-minute chart.

Here’s a piece:

Most recently we saw price begin to find some support near the 1816 area [for the S&P 500 ($SPX)]. Each of the three tests were accompanied by higher lows in the RSI indicator as well as higher lows in the Advance-Decline Line. This told us that momentum was rising and more stocks were advance vs. declining as the price action began to form a short-term bottom. Over the next couple of days we saw the S&P 500 rise over 50 points.

Read the rest: Advance-Decline Line: Find Intraday Turning Points (TraderPlanet)

Weekly Technical Market Outlook 4/21/2014

Posted on April 21, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

I hope everyone had a good weekend and a Happy Easter. I was out-of-town visiting family this past weekend so I did not have time to write a full Technical Market Outlook, but I do want to share a few thoughts….

-With the bullish move we had last week the trend of the S&P 500 ($SPX) is back above its 20-day and 100-day moving averages. The 100-MA has been an important level of support for the current up trend and it was good to see it hold on that short-term drop.

-Breadth has improved along with momentum as the Relative Strength Index held the level of support I mentioned last week. The NYSE Advance-Decline Line hit a new high but the Common Stock-Only Advance-Decline Line has yet to break out.

-This week I’ll be keeping a close eye on commodities. Specifically the PowerShares Multi-Sector Agriculture ETF ($DBA), which is closing in on its March high of about $29. I’m looking to see if ag commodities can break out or if the divergence that may be developing in momentum and volume keep this asset class from experiencing a second leg higher.

Be sure to check back later this week I’ll have some more content up on the blog. Have a great week!

Did We Just See A False Break in Emerging Markets?

Posted on April 15, 2014 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Last Friday I tweeted out this chart that shows the ratio between the iShares Emerging Market ETF ($EEM) and the S&P 500 ($SPY). I noticed that the ratio was approaching previous support as shown by the red arrows and the blue line. This was an important juncture for emerging market bulls, they needed to break this level to keep the music playing.

Well it seems the bears bulled the plug as the ratio between emerging markets and the S&P 500 produced a false break as it made an attempt to keep from turning previous support into resistance. At the same time we saw the relationship’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) work off ‘overbought’ status which is a sign of heavy buying as traders pushed up the relative performance of $EEM against $SPY. Going forward I’ll be watching to see if we get another rest of this resistance or of we see emerging market once again under perform U.S. equities and we get a re-test of the March low.