Month: May 2012

New All-Time 10-Year Yield Low

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Some people remember where they were when Kennedy was assassinated, others remember the moon landing. Well today you need to remember the 10-year Treasury hit a new all-time low yield! According to James Bianco via Barry Ritholtz, the previous low was in 1946 at 1.54%. Today’s intraday low (so far) has been 1.536%.  

James Bianco: What Is The All-Time Low 10-Year Yield?

Update: Intraday low ended up being 1.533%

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

Not Pretty

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This is rough. GDP came in at 1.9% for Q1 from the prior estimate of 2.2%. Initial jobless claims were higher than expected, and Chicago PMI data for May was pretty weak.

Only one chart stuck out to me this morning and that was buying (green) vs. selling (red) volume. We hadn’t had a big move in volume ‘pressure’ recently, but yesterday the sellers took over, breaking past the high experienced when the S&P put in a low just under 1300.  As long as selling volume is in control it’s hard to have much hope for a continued rally.

Looking at sector performance, JC Parets did a nice post this morning look at sector relative strength to the S&P, which shows the defensive names leading through May. 

Sector performance is indicating a defensive posture, the euro continues to show weakness, economic data just isn’t strong enough to put in a bid at these levels, and sellers are giving buyers an ass kicking. Not pretty. The May 18th low when it hit the 360-day MA was the line in the sand. I’ll be watching to see if that low and that moving average hold if we get down to that level.

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

We Have Our New Range

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We now have our new range for the S&P 500. This consolidation pattern is not a good sign for the overall index, as it typically continues the prior trend, which in this case would be down. I’m noticing a drop in volume during the range period. I’ll be watching for the level of volume we experience when this pattern breaks, whether it happens on a heavy or weak trading.  

 

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

Best Paying College Degrees

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If you’re going to go to college and likely rack up debt you’ll get to enjoy for years to come, you might as well pick a major that pays well after graduation. The Economic Research Bureau just reported the top 15 best paying college degrees.  

1. Economics (average hourly pay: $43.15)

2. Electrical Engineering (average hourly pay: $41.61)

3. Mechanical Engineering (average hourly pay: $40.43)

4. Finance (average hourly pay: $38.21)

5. Mathematics (average hourly pay: $37.36)

6. Accounting (average hourly pay: $36.88)

7. Computers and IT (average hourly pay: $35.83)

8. Political Science (average hourly pay: $33.32)

9. Marketing (average hourly pay: $32.90)

10. Business Management and Administration (average hourly pay: $31.56)

11. Nursing (average hourly pay: $31.12)

12. History (average hourly pay: $29.52)

13. Communications (average hourly pay: $28.17)

14. Biological Science (average hourly pay: $27.26)

15. Letters (average hourly pay: $27.41)

So there you have it, either learn to use a calculator or learn to take one apart and put it back together and you’ll be fine.  

Source: Top 15 Best Paying College Degrees

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

UBS Doesn’t See Extreme Enough Sentiment for a Bottom

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Bloomberg is out with a piece detailing the analysis of UBS in regards to sentiment and the recent rally over the past few days.  

From Bloomberg:

While the proportion of newsletter writers who said they are bearish on equities rose to a two-month high of 26.6 percent last week, it’s still below the peak of 46.3 percent reached in October, when the S&P 500 hit its 2011 low, according to data from Investors Intelligence compiled by Bloomberg. The New York Stock Exchange Short-Term Trading Index, a volume-based market breadth indicator, reached a 2012 peak of 2.52 last month, failing to break 3.0, a level that Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller of UBS consider a sign of capitulation.

“The missing panic sell-off and the low levels of bearishness are suggesting that we still have a high level of complacency in the market,” the Zurich-based analysts wrote in a note today. “With the current sentiment mix we can clearly say that the U.S. market is still far away from a contrarian bull call, which is one reason why it is likely to see more near term pain into June/July.”

I looked at the extreme pessimism in the AAII survey on May 21, which turned out to be a short-term bottom in the major indices. However, UBS apparently doesn’t see it that way. On the intermediate-term, I think I agree with the UBS analyst. I think we could see further weakness once the market is able to suck in some more buyers. We didn’t see enough pain when we broke 1300 on the S&P, and so a new low could still be experienced…time will tell.  

Source: Sentiment Signals S&P 500 Retreat May Not Be Over (Bloomberg)  

 

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.